The Timberwolves and Cavaliers have each made some noise so far in the offseason and Minnesota appears to be taking a Cavs/LeBron James-era blueprint in its approach to building around Anthony Edwards. As the offseason continues, let’s read the tea leaves regarding what’s brewing with the immediate outlooks and long-term futures of each franchise.
- The Rudy Gobert trade reaction you won’t hear elsewhere — Yes, it’s a lot of draft picks for the Wolves to give up (four future picks and five total first-rounders if you count Walker Kessler) but let’s dig deeper. Minnesota is all-in on Anthony Edwards, so providing him with the best environment to continue blossoming as a superstar is a sound strategy. Gobert will allow Edwards to build on his strengths and a not-so-subtle factor in the trade: the franchise also just “established” the market for trading “star” players. Again, it’s a lot but it reestablishes the trade market for centers too. Is Karl-Anthony Towns a center? In two years, the Timberwolves will either have made great strides or they’ll be ready to split up their stars (further build around Edwards’ strengths). At that point, they may have a 28-year-old franchise center—who’s under contract through 2028—on the trade block. What could KAT fetch in a trade then? If the Minnesota Twin Tower experiment doesn’t work, they’ll have only lost one draft pick (the 2023 selection) before Towns is trade-eligible, an event that will likely provide the franchise with more of a return than what it gave up in the Gobert deal.
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Trajectory watch: Edwards vs. LeBron — As a sophomore, Edwards just did something that few top picks achieve: lead a team to the postseason at such an early juncture in his career. Historically, it’s the third NBA season where we see rising stars who were picked atop the NBA Draft blossom into the best player on a postseason team. LeBron James didn’t see the postseason until the 2005-06 campaign, his third in the league.
- The list of players reaching their first playoff appearance in year three since James did it include: Anthony Davis, Blake Griffin, Kevin Durant, LaMarcus Aldridge, Chris Paul and Dwight Howard.
- Some exceptions include Derrick Rose and Carmelo Anthony, who each accomplished the feat in year one, and Ja Morant, who helped Memphis clinch one of the first play-in game berths as a no. 8 seed in 2021.
- There have been some unique situations, such as Luka Doncic (reaching the postseason two years after joining a Mavericks team that traded up for him and had more talent than you’ll typically see from a franchise acquiring a top-3 pick) and Jayson Tatum/ Ben Simmons (players who saw immediate playoff berths in different, yet unique outlier situations).
- Where does Edwards, who was clearly the Wolves’ best player during the No. 7 seed’s short playoff run, factor in? Let’s not crown him the next LeBron just yet but the 20-year-old is off to a start that is exceeding many of the top picks over the past two decades, something that should give some credence to Minnesota’s decision-making.
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Timberwolves’ Current Reality — The team’s setup sort of reminds me of the 2015 Cavaliers Finals team with Edwards playing the role of LeBron James and the agile twin towers playing an elevated version of the Kevin Love–Tristan Thompson frontcourt. This Wolves team is going to play some bully ball. It’s a shame they had to deal Patrick Beverley. He would have been their Matthew Dellavedova.
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What about D-Lo? — Rumors of D’Angelo Russell being on the trade block began to circulate after the season and this trade cools those rumblings… for now. It’s curious that Russell wasn’t included in the deal, something that would have allowed the team to keep some of its depth and possibly keep an additional draft pick or two as well. Ultimately, I’m not sure Russell is with the Wolves for the long haul but assuming he’s on the roster to begin the season, Gobert providing strong defense behind the point guard should elevate his trade value if the Wolves go that route at some point over the next 12 months (another avenue to quickly restock some of the draft capital they gave up).
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Speaking of point guards — Darius Garland. There should be some optimism about his future after the massive extension. Although I see little chance that he makes an All-NBA team but have no fear, this team will go as far as Evan Mobley will take them. Mobley is the real deal: a serious threat to start a run of a dozen straight all-star appearances. It’s a shame that in the modern NBA, wing play is seemingly more valuable than traditional frontcourt players, though that could shift the other way over the next decade and Mobley is the kind of agile big man who could accelerate such a movement. However, it does feel like Cleveland has paired a future hall of fame wide receiver on a rookie deal (Mobley in this analogy) with an above-average, high-priced QB here (Garland running the point). Then again, this has a greater than zero chance of turning into a Tony Parker–Manu Ginobili–Tim Duncan situation if the franchise can add one more right piece and Garland takes yet another leap (albeit the good-to-great one that is the hardest for a point guard to make).
- Collin Sexton Forecast — With few teams possessing cap space, the market for Sexton is a bit chilly. There were rumors that Dallas had interest but Chris Fedor of Cleveland.com hears that the Mavs are unlikely to be the landing spot for Sexton, mentioning on his podcast that Dallas doesn’t have the pieces that Cleveland would desire in a sign-and-trade. It’s possible that the former No. 8 pick simply returns to the Cavs on a deal that looks a lot more team-friendly than initially anticipated.
- Minnesota/Cleveland Kyrie Irving temperature check — The Cavs bringing back Irving would be surprising and any sort of Collin Sexton sign-and-trade comes with the same hurdles for Brooklyn that a Deandre Ayton deal has. As for Minnesota, there haven’t been any concrete Irving rumblings but if Kevin Durant leaves, who says no to a Russell for Irving swap?
- Better long-term outlook: Cavaliers or Timberwolves — This really comes down to whether you believe Mobley’s ceiling or Edwards’ ceiling will yield higher results. If it were a prop bet, I’d put Edwards/Minnesota as a -130 favorite. I think that in 10 years, we are going to look at each player as the top star of their respective drafts.
- Short-term title chances — Minnesota is currently +4000 to win the title at PointsBet, ranking seventh among teams in the Western Conference. Cleveland is listed at +10000, which is ahead of only nine longshots leaguewide (including the Wizards, Knicks, and Pacers).
