The NBA Draft Lottery is tonight and the fate of several franchises hangs in the balance, as we await the event (8:30 pm ET, ESPN), let’s take a look at the odds that each team has at moving up in the lottery.
2021 NBA Lottery Odds
*percentages
| TEAM | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | AVG |
| Houston | 14 | 13.4 | 12.7 | 11.9 | 47.9 | 3.7 | |||||||||
| Detroit | 14 | 13.4 | 12.7 | 11.9 | 27.8 | 20.1 | 3.9 | ||||||||
| Orlando | 14 | 13.4 | 12.7 | 11.9 | 14.8 | 26 | 7.1 | 4.1 | |||||||
| Oklahoma City (tie) | 11.5 | 11.4 | 11.2 | 11 | 7.4 | 27.1 | 18 | 2.4 | 4.6 | ||||||
| Cleveland (tie) | 11.5 | 11.4 | 11.2 | 11 | 2 | 18.2 | 25.5 | 8.6 | 0.6 | 4.8 | |||||
| Minnesota | 9 | 9.2 | 9.4 | 9.6 | 8.6 | 29.7 | 20.6 | 3.8 | 0.2 | 5.5 | |||||
| Toronto | 7.5 | 7.8 | 8.1 | 8.5 | 19.8 | 33.9 | 13 | 1.4 | >0.0 | 6.2 | |||||
| Chicago (tie) | 4.5 | 4.8 | 5.2 | 5.7 | 34.5 | 36.2 | 8.5 | 0.5 | >0.0 | 7.5 | |||||
| Sacramento (tie) | 4.5 | 4.8 | 5.2 | 5.7 | 46.4 | 29.4 | 3.9 | 0.1 | >0.0 | 8.1 | |||||
| New Orleans (tie) | 4.5 | 4.8 | 5.2 | 5.7 | 60.6 | 17.9 | 1.2 | >0.0 | >0.0 | 8.7 | |||||
| Charlotte (tie) | 1.8 | 2 | 2.2 | 2.5 | 77.6 | 13.4 | 0.4 | >0.0 | 10.4 | ||||||
| San Antonio (tie) | 1.7 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 2.4 | 85.2 | 6.6 | 0.1 | 11.3 | |||||||
| Indiana | 1 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 92.9 | 2.3 | 12.5 | ||||||||
| Golden State | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 97.6 | 13.7 |
Pick Notes:
- Houston will send their pick to the Thunder (in exchange for the no. 18 pick) if it falls outside the top-4 (via the 2019 Russell Westbrook-Chris Paul trade). The lowest the Rockets can land is No. 5.
- The Timberwolves will send their selection to the Warriors if it falls outside the top-3 (D’Angelo Russell trade).
- The Bulls will only keep their pick if it lands in the top-4, otherwise, it’ll be sent to the Magic (Nikola Vucevic trade).
