The defending Western Conference champion Phoenix Suns (1) are set to play host to the Dallas Mavericks (4) in the conference semifinals in a battle. Here’s a look at some of the key factors before Game 1 tips off:
Mavericks-Suns Game 1 Odds
- Spread: Suns -6.0 (-110)
- Total: 214.5 (-105/-115)
- Moneyline: Mavericks +190
- Time: 10:00 p.m. ET
- Watch: fuboTV
- Odds via PointsBet
Could Devin Booker‘s Health Hold Back The Suns?
Phoenix may have been the best team in the regular season, but in the playoffs, they sure haven’t played like it… Although the Suns did take care of business against New Orleans in six games, it was a bit of an underwhelming opening round performance as the loss of Devin Booker really swung some games in favor of the Pelicans.
As much as that makes sense, it’s a bit concerning. The Suns managed to win a franchise-record 64 games and thrived even when Chris Paul missed time in the backend of the regular season. However, when Booker missed a majority of games, Phoenix didn’t look amazing on both sides of the ball, especially down the stretch, but Paul was able to do his thing all series long and racked up 68 assists and only nine turnovers. Overall the “point god” has averaged 22.3 points and 11.3 assists while shooting 56.7% from the field. He should continue to average a strong double-double against a Mavs defense that has shown its weaknesses at times.
Dallas’ Weakness
Dallas doesn’t have a true or strong big man which could cost them on both sides of the ball. Deandre Ayton averaged 20.5 points per game and 9.8 rebounds per game while shooting 70% from the field in the opening round vs. the Pelicans. On top of that opposing players are shooting 11% worse than their normal FG% when guarded by Ayton, which ranks second among bigs defensively to Miami’s Bam Adebayo.
Dallas will have to rely on the backcourt of Luka Donic and Jalen Brunson to give this team a fighting chance against the top-seeded Suns. Doncic, who initially missed time with a calf strain in the opening round vs. Jazz, returned on the backend of the series and racked up 29.0 points, 10.7 rebounds, and 5.7 assists through the final three games.
Meanwhile, Brunson shined in Doncic’s absence but fit in well as the second option after his teammate’s return averaging 27.8 PPG, 4.8 RPG, 4.2 APG with shooting splits of 48/36/85%. Interestingly enough, Brunson has the most total points this postseason but should see a far tougher matchup against Phoenix who has Paul, Ayton, and defensive player of the year candidate Mikal Bridges locking up opposing teams.
Series Prediction
We have yet to see a playoff series hit seven games this postseason, but if there’s a matchup that has the potential to do so, it could and should be this one. Dallas has the firepower on offense to push this series to six or better yet, seven games.
Ultimately, the Mavs are going to fall short as I can’t envision Doncic single-handily being able to take over for four of the seven games in this series. Although Phoenix looks capable of ending this series in six, I’m rooting for a seven-game series, still in favor of the defending Western Conference champs as Booker should hopefully be off minutes restriction by then and go back to averaging 23.0 points while shooting above 48% from the field and beyond the arc.
SR Prediction: Suns in 7
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