The 2021 NBA Finals is tied up at two games apiece and Saturday will be the tipping point in the series as either the Bucks or Suns will be one game closer to becoming an NBA champion.
NBA Finals Game 5 Odds
- Spread: Suns -4 (-110)
- Total: Over 218 (-105)
- Moneyline: Bucks +150
There are several ways Game 5 could go with two big factors playing a role. Phoenix could get back in this series with home-court advantage (8-2 record this postseason at home). On the contrary, can Milwaukee keep the momentum going after winning two straight despite their abysmal record on the road this postseason? (5-6 record through 11 road games).
If this series has proven anything thus far, it’s that Devin Booker and Giannis Antetokounmpo are going to put up monster numbers and it’s up to their supporting cast to show up. Fortunately for Antetokounmpo, the Bucks may have cracked the Suns code…or so it looks that way based on the last few games. Although Milwaukee lost Game 2 in Phoenix, the Suns had no answer (and still don’t) for Antetkounmpo.
Will Uncharacteristic Chris Paul Continue?
On top of that, over the course of the last three games, Chris Paul has racked up an ugly 15 turnovers. Offensively, Paul hasn’t been as effective averaging 14.5 points, 8.0 assists, and a +/- of -23 over the last two games.
It may far-fetched to say Paul has hurt the Suns more than helped them when on the court this series since Booker is the only Suns starter without a negative +/-. CP3 needing a bounce-back game is an understatement for Phoenix.
When will Giannis’ Co-Stars Show Up?
Milwaukee has its own inconsistency in Khris Middleton. The so-called “Batman” of the team has shown glimpses of showing up when things go downhill.
- Home: 25 PPG, 47 FG%, 38 3P%
- Road: 22 PPG, 40 FG%, 32 3P%
- Home: 29 PPG, 45 FG%, 40 3P%
- Road: 20 PPG, 41 FG%, 33 3P%
It’s tough to see the Bucks win the title, let alone Game 5 if Middleton is not on his A-game. Here’s how the Bucks star has fared thus far in the playoffs and NBA Finals.
Although Middleton has had his flaws during the Finals, Holiday arguably been worse. The former Pelican has been underwhelming on offense in this series with 15.3 points, 8.0 assists, and 6.0 rebounds while shooting 33.3% from the field.
What to Expect in Game 5?
Game 5 is will go in one of three ways:
- Scenario #1: Bucks steal Game 5 and come home and close out the series in 6 (9-1 record at home)
- Scenario #2: Suns take series lead with a win in Game 5 but lose Game 6 in Milwaukee forcing a Game 7 at home to win the title in Phoenix.
- Scenario #3: Suns win Game 5 and close the series out in 6 with a win in Milwaukee (Phoniex has not played in a Game 7 in this year’s postseason run).
It’s hard to envision the Bucks winning this series if it goes to Game 7,. The outcome of the game could depend on Chris Paul’s ability at a bounce back and if Middleton’s underperformance on the road and Holiday’s sub-par play will drown the Bucks once again.
The Suns may look like favorites at home, due for a bounce-back game. However, Milwaukee is trending in the right direction (at least from a betting perspective).
Betting Stats
(via Basketball Insiders)
- Bucks are 5-2 ATS in their last seven Saturday games.
- Bucks are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.
- Bucks are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall
- Suns are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games playing on 2 days rest.
