Final Four Betting: Value on Gonzaga’s Spread, Houston ML?

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Gonzaga and UCLA find themselves head-to-head in the Final Four. What are the chances that the Bruins (+14) can make a close game of it (or even pull off the would-be historic upset)?

Gonzaga has won each of its 30 games leading up the Final Four matchup with UCLA and they’ve beaten their opponent by at least 14 in all but seven of those. As Shane McNichol of The Action Network details, those close games have come when Gonzaga went cold from the field.

UCLA has been lucky during the tournament, as their opponents have combined to shoot just 23% from behind the arc and 56% from the foul line. Expect some regression to occur and if Gonzaga just has an average game offensively, the No. 1 team in the nation could make UCLA’s Final Four experience miserable and easily cover the 14-point spread.

More Betting Notes

  • One bettor in Las Vegas placed a $770K Moneyline bet on Gonzaga (-1,100), according to Patrick Everson of Covers.com. The wager would pay out $70K if the Zags win.

  • Gonzaga +14 is getting just 37% of the bets as of this writing (per The Action Network’s data), though 80% of the money wagered is on the Zags.

  • The Action Network’s Pat McMahon has Houston’s Moneyline (+190) as his best bet, finding that Baylor and Houston are more evenly matched than the odds indicate. Both teams have top offensives with the Bears ranking second in the nation in points per possession while the Cougars rank fifth. (New users at FanDuel can get 40-1 odds on this or any Moneyline during the Final Four).

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