The NBA Draft is near and through various reports, we have a clearer idea of who may land as the first overall pick. Of the many prospects who have been rumored to find themselves picked in the lottery, three candidates appear to have a real shot at being picked No. 1 overall.
Let’s see how the odds fare for the first overall pick:
Odds For No. 1 Pick in 2022 NBA Draft
- Jabari Smith -250
- Paolo Banchero +300
- Chet Holmgren +400
- Jaden Ivey +10000
- Keegan Murray +25000
- AJ Griffin +50000
- Johnny Davis +50000
- Jalen Duren +50000
- TyTy Washington +50000
- Ochai Agbaji +50000
Odds via PointsBet
Sorting Out Perceived Top-2
The odds – for the most part – agree with the reports we’ve heard. One of those being Chet and Jabari’s preferred landing spots. For some time now, Jabari has been the consensus first overall pick. He worked out with only the Oklahoma City Thunder and the Orlando Magic. Rumors have been around that Chet and his camp prefer Oklahoma City as their destination, for long-term fit and the ability to be paid both.
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Somewhere in all the draft noise, Banchero becomes the consensus third pick but is understood to be the most NBA-ready player. It doesn’t quite make sense, but when you look at the teams picking at one and two, it’s slightly clearer as to why. Orlando can always be expected to do something weird, and the Thunder and Presti usually have their guy picked out way ahead of the draft.
Banchero could easily be the best player in this draft, and likely will be in the first few months of the next NBA season. I still don’t understand why Banchero is assumed to drop, so I wouldn’t be surprised if he goes top two.
The odds take quite a dip after the top three picks, with Jaden Ivey taking the cake in the fourth spot with +10000 odds. Ivey has drawn heavy comparisons to Russell Westbrook, which is a high compliment when you watch Westbrooks’ highlights in his prime.
Keegan Murray, who the media is trying to will to the Sacramento Kings, is the last of the two dark horses for the first overall pick, behind Ivey.
Murray’s expected landing spot is the fourth pick, but because the Magic have the first pick, not much would surprise me in this draft, and if they do something wild, the Kings should thank the Magic plenty.
Any players past the top-5 would be astronomical to see picked in the top three of the draft. Anyone who’s read into the media speculation and reports knows that there’s pretty much a consensus top three in this year’s draft.