Our weekly column at FortyEightMinutes.com brings you an in-depth look at different basketball and football storylines. This week, we’ll preview the field of NBA playoffs teams breaking them into two categories:
- The 9 Non-Contenders for the 2024 NBA Championship
- The 7 Real NBA Championship Contenders
The analysis is conducted through the lens of whether or not the teams can win four straight playoff series to capture an NBA title. As a reminder: just because a team advances a round or two (even as far as the Conference Finals), it doesn’t mean they were a real title contender.
Plenty of teams throughout NBA history have won two postseason series in a row but that’s only half of the journey to becoming NBA champion. For this exercise, we’re interested in determining which teams have a realistic chance to go all the way and why the other teams simply do not have what it takes.
The 9 Non-Contenders
Philadelphia 76ers — Any given 7-game series (but just not four of them in a row). The Sixers actually have a great opportunity to make the Eastern Conference Finals this year and given The Process and the shuffling of Joel Embiid‘s All-Star sidekicks post-Process, that outcome may be considered a win by many.
With Embiid’s health, however, the scheduling of each of the Sixers’ four potential series will play a major role in whether they advance.
The Knicks are a good matchup for the Sixers not just on the court, but also for the fact that they won’t have to overcome strenuous travel for their first round series.
While NBA teams certainly aren’t flying coach, it’s better for Embiid, Kyle Lowry and other potentially achy Sixers vets to not have extensively travel for part of their postseason journey, especially as they weather the storm of missing De’Anthony Melton to begin the series.
As for Embiid, he’s only been on one road trip since his latest return from his knee injury: an early April trip to Miami followed by a flight to Memphis followed by a game in San Antonio where he sat out because of injury maintenance. When he took the court again (at home against the Pistons), it was on two days rest and he responded well, scoring 37 points in 36 minutes of court time.
His post-plane trip performance won’t be tested again for at least another two weeks and that’ll leave Embiid slightly fresher in the second round should the team advance past the Knicks.
The early travel schedule in the Knicks series is also set up nicely for Daryl Morey’s club in terms of rest days between games.
Sixers-Knicks First-Round Schedule
- Game 1 (4/20): Travel; 2 days rest
- Game 2 (4/22): No travel; 1 day rest
- Game 3 (4/25): Travel; 2 days rest
- Game 4 (4/28): No travel; 2 days rest (1pm start)
- Game 5 (4/30): Travel; 1 day rest.
- Game 6: (5/2): Travel; 1 day rest
- Game 7 (5/4): Travel; 1 day rest
Perhaps it’s also worth noting that only two of the past 20 Eastern Conference first round series have gone more than five games.
The Sixers (if healthy) are the better team in their New York tilt and it’s easy to see them going up 3-1 and ultimately winning the series in reduced games. That outcome would also aid them entering the second round (against the Bucks or Pacers, which could be the rare Eastern Conference series in the post-LeBron East that goes the full seven games).
Again, the goal of this exercise is to predict which NBA teams are real contenders as defined by probabilities and abilities of winning four straight playoff series: getting to the Conference Finals is just half of the journey.
While I expect the Sixers to defeat the Knicks handily, what are the chances that Embiid’s knee holds up for six-weeks of intense playoff basketball after that, a stretch that will come with multiple plane rides per week and fewer rest days between contests? What are the Sixers’ chances—even at full health—against superior teams like the Celtics in the Conference Finals after four weeks of playoff battles or against a Western Conference goliath in the NBA Finals after that?
The Sixers’ most probable, best-case scenario is making the Eastern Conference Finals for the first time since Allen Iverson‘s 2001 Finals run, which would be a moral victory about as big as Iverson’s statue in South Philadelphia. Nonetheless, it would still be a victory.
Los Angeles Lakers — Any given 7-game series (but just not four of them in a row..part 2). Similarly to the Sixers, the Lakers have the ability to beat any given team in a seven-game series and they do, in fact, have a shot at beating Denver in the first round.
While their scheduling isn’t as delightful as Philadelphia’s, they do see at least two days rest prior to their Game 1 in Denver and while traveling back to Los Angeles ahead of Game 3 and ahead of a potential Game 6.
It wouldn’t be surprising if LeBron & Co. have an electric performance and push toward an upset in round one. Yet, the probabilities of them putting together four straight series of winning level performance is worrisome, which leaves them on the outside of the real contenders list.
New York Knicks — Regular season inflation catches up. While the Knicks have the second best average point differential in the East (+4.6), part of their regular season success is a result of the environment coach Tom Thibodeau creates.
Under Thibs, the team’s preparation and play has routinely been more intense at an earlier junction than many other NBA teams during the regular season. With all teams fully ramped up for the NBA’s second-season, the competitive advantage is mitigated.
Cleveland Cavaliers — Chaos is a ladder. Where there is smoke, there is usually fire when it comes to an All-Star level player preparing to depart from a franchise.
Historically, the postseason leading up to that star leaving doesn’t bode well for their playoff success. Cleveland has the talent to win multiple series but when it comes to future non-Cavalier Donovan Mitchell and how far he can take his current team, whether it’s a first-round exit or one playoff series win, it’s unlikely to be enough to make a true finals run.
Read More on FortyEightMinutes.com.
Atlanta Hawks/Chicago Bulls — Simply not enough. Neither of these teams have the talent to compete with the elite teams in the NBA and both should see some major roster changes this summer.
Orlando Magic — It’s too soon. They’re likely one or two pieces away from being a real contender. Orlando might be able to grind out a first-round series win over the Cavs but the team just isn’t ready to carry over its success through four straight rounds of more intense basketball.
Oklahoma City Thunder — It’s too soon (part 2). Sure, this team is ready to make some noise in the playoffs ala 2013-2014 Golden State Warriors and the club’s size concerns might not impact them until the second or third rounds. This roster simply isn’t prepared for the four series journey it takes to win an NBA title.
Sacramento Kings/New Orleans Pelicans — Simply not enough. The Pelicans with a healthy Zion Williamson would be much more of a threat to the Thunder in the first round but even if health was guaranteed, New Orleans hasn’t quite optimized the roster around him with the Brandon Ingram pairing showcasing inefficiencies in the overlap of the two All-Stars.
While the Kings have better optimized the roster around their franchise pillars—Domantas Sabonis and De’Aaron Fox—they simply don’t have the total talent to push for four straight playoff series wins.
Indiana Pacers — The difference between NBA success and NBA Finals contender legitimacy. The Pacers won four of five games against the Bucks this season (including an In-Season Tournament game). All those contests were before they added Pascal Siakam, which made them a much more serious playoff opponent, finishing the regular season behind only the Knicks and Celtics in the Eastern Conference in point differential.
Given Giannis Antetokounmpo‘s potential unavailability, Indiana’s opening round series and the non-Celtics side of the Eastern Conference playoff bracket is certainly open. Advancing a round or two is a feasible Cinderella story outcome for the In-Season Tournament runner-ups. A trip to the Conference Finals is…likely the best case scenario for this club, however. That would be a success but don’t mistake that for the legitimacy of a true title contender; Indiana isn’t there.
Read More on FortyEightMinutes.com.
The 7 Real NBA Championship Contenders
7) Dallas Mavericks
Dallas was on the edge of this list. The Mavs’ defense has improved since adding Daniel Gafford (8th in the league in Defensive Net Rating since his team debut vs. 22nd before it). They come into the postseason on a hot streak, though many of their victories down the stretch have come against mediocre teams or basement dwellers.
With Luka Doncic playing at an MVP-level, you can’t discount the Mavericks. It’s easy to see them making a two-month run through the Finals. It’s also easy to see them losing in the first round. That outcome wouldn’t mean they weren’t real title contenders; it would mean they ran into a better title contender (and one that’s ranked high on this list).
6) Milwaukee Bucks
The Bucks are the only real threat to the Celtics in the Eastern Conference and that’s assuming that Giannis can return to full strength following his calf injury.
5) Minnesota Timberwolves
Remember when everyone told you the Timberwolves’ deal for Rudy Gobert was the worst trade in NBA history? Yeah, I wasn’t among them. It wasn’t just that Gobert’s defense is elite but also that the move re-establishes the trade market for centers (and for what a potential Karl-Anthony Towns deal could garner).
This year, Gobert has anchored a Minnesota defense that lead the league handily. As Brandon Anderson of The Action Network relays, elite defenses like Minnesota’s typically find some level of success in the postseason.
Over the past three decades, I found 17 teams with a comparable profile — an elite defense that lapped the field and a roughly league-average offense. The good news for Minnesota is that 11 of the 17 teams made at least the Conference Finals, or 65%, almost two in three. Only two won the title, but only one of them lost in the first round — the 2008 Rockets, missing defensive stalwart Yao Ming.
Yet, the Suns’ offensive firepower is a tough matchup and there’s no series to hide in the West but if the Wolves can contain Phoenix and advance, they are a real threat to beat anyone else in the conference.
4) Phoenix Suns
The Suns haven’t put together a lengthy dominant stretch this season but when Kevin Durant, Devin Booker, and Bradley Beal were all on the floor together (the trio played 41 games together), they showcased some championship-level play.
Depth could be a major concern for Phoenix, particularly in the frontcourt, though they can expect to stagger their stars and find success.
Minnesota’s defensive bread and butter with Gobert is to get opponents to shoot two-pointers rather than obtaining points in the paint. Phoenix isn’t off their game if their stars, who are elite in the midrange, have to shoot it out.
The Suns’ biggest challenge to a title will likely come in round two vs. the Nuggets. Like many, Phoenix has a potential matchup nightmare against Nikola Jokic but if they can advance past Denver (and they have a real chance to do it), there isn’t really another team in the West that’s going to make them pay for their center deficiencies.
3) Los Angeles Clippers
Kawhi Leonard, who has only lost one playoff series since 2016 when he’s been healthy enough to finish it, has arguably the most talent around him since his Spurs’ days.
There is a clear case of an on-off switch in Los Angeles.
- The team had a 2.5-month stretch from mid-November through the day before the All-Star reserves were announced where they went 31-8 and no player had a higher net rating than James Harden (minimum 20.0 minutes/game).
- No team had a better record or a higher offensive net rating than the Clippers during that time.
- After the All-Star reserves were announced, Harden only played in 18 of the next 33 games and the Clippers went 17-16.
On the season, only Philadelphia produced a better five-man lineup in terms of net rating than the Harden-Leonard-Paul George–Norman Powell–Ivica Zubac group (among those that have played at least 60 minutes together). Substitute Mason Plumlee and Terance Mann for Powell and Zubac, that group has an additional 67 minutes played together and it ranks eighth in the league in terms of net rating within the same parameters.
The health of the Clippers’ stars are always a concern but Leonard appears back to form, Harden has showcased that he can still run an uber-efficient system and George enters the postseason coming off of his best regular season in years, where he sported a career-best 61.3 true shooting percentage and earned a 5-year-high 7.3 win shares. You could argue that even if one of their stars goes down, they still should be considered among the NBA elites.
The Clippers have the stars and the depth to make a dominant run and if they can advance past the Mavericks (the schedule of the seven games series does them no favors), then they are in position to floor it toward a title.
2) Denver Nuggets
Since the trade deadline, the Nuggets have the second-best net rating in the NBA at 8.4, a figure that over the course of the season would best any club aside from the Celtics.
The Western Conference is filled with teams capable of defeating Nikola Jokic & Co. in a series if a couple of things break right (the Clippers present the worst matchup for Denver).
It is not a given that they return to the Finals for the second-straight year by any means but Denver has everything it needs to make that push.
1) Boston Celtics
The Celtics are in historic territory with a +11.4 average point differential and a league leading 15.4 net rating since the trade deadline. Their path to the NBA Finals that shouldn’t be a gauntlet, which should allow them to take all the measures necessary to do whatever is possible to maintain health, such as managing the minutes of their vets in early series.
Boston should make it to the Finals to face whoever comes out of the severely more talented Western Conference.
