Our weekly column at FortyEightMinutes.com brings you an in-depth look at some basketball and football storylines. This week’s edition contains notes from the DMV, including:
- Good news for the Wizards’ draft outlook ahead of what’s expected to be an underwhelming 2024 draft class.
- What to watch for in the D.C. Defenders’ home opener.
- Our 7-round Commanders mock draft with Washington trading down with the Vikings
Wizards Shouldn’t Lose Hope Despite Down 2024 NBA Draft
NBA executives around the league are down on the 2024 class of draft prospects with a few telling Jeff Goodman that it appears to be the worst draft class they’ve ever seen.
It may seem like bleak news for the Wizards, who are projected to have their highest draft pick since earlier this decade in the upcoming draft.
However, assuming Washington lands a top-3 pick (the Pistons are the only team with a worse record heading into the final two weeks of the season), the lack of perceived talent coming out of college and the G League may not be that detrimental to the Wizards’ goal of adding a star player with their top selection in June.
Every NBA draft class since 1952 has produced at least three All-Stars
All 68 draft classes between 1953 and 2020 have produced at least three All-Stars (we excluded the 2021, 2022, and 2023 draft classes for now, though as each group matures, it appears likely that they will develop at least three All-Stars).
Only six of those draft classes produced exactly three All-Stars. The six classes range in terms of NBA All-Star talent, so let’s examine them to shed some light on what the Wizards could be heading into as they prep for a perceived weak draft class.
NBA Draft Classes with Three All-Stars
2019 – Zion Williamson (No. 1 pick) was hyped as a generational prospect entering the draft and he, along with Ja Morant (No. 2 pick) and Darius Garland (No. 5 pick), were each named to at least one All-Star game since draft night.
- There are some additional candidates from the class who at least have a chance to be added to that list (RJ Barrett and Tyler Herro among them).
- Interestingly enough, former Wizard Daniel Gafford currently leads the draft class in win shares (24.5).
2013 – Heading into this draft, there was pessimism about the outlook, and while there were a few major hits—Giannis Antetokounmpo (No. 15) and Rudy Gobert (No. 27)—and one lottery pick turned All-Star (no. 2 pick Victor Oladipo), the class largely disappointed in terms of star talent.
- No. 1 pick Anthony Bennett only played four seasons and Michael Carter-Williams failed to do much outside of his usage-heavy Rookie-of-the-Year campaign with the Sixers.
- 16 of the 60 players from this class made it 10-plus years in the league with most being rotation players.
2000 – No. 1 pick Kenyon Martin, No. 19 pick Jamaal Magloire, and No. 43 pick Michael Redd each made just one All-Star appearance.
- No. 5 pick Mike Miller, who won Rookie of the Year, played 17 seasons and won a Sixth Man of the Year during the 2005-06 season.
- Only 15 of the 58 players drafted in 2000 went on to play at least 10 years in the league.
1997 – Tim Duncan (No. 1 pick) headlined this class, going from being deemed a generational prospect to making 15 All-Star games and entering the Hall of Fame.
- Chauncey Billups (No. 3 pick), and Tracy McGrady (No. 9 pick) combined for 12 All-Star game appearances. Outside of these three, no player surpassed 50 career win shares.
- Only 57 players were selected in this draft class (Washington had to forfeit its first-rounder as a result of the Juwan Howard fiasco) and 18 draftees made it to at least the 10-year mark in the NBA, including Stephen Jackson, Tim Thomas, and Tony Battie.
- It’s worth noting that this draft class followed the historic 1996 draft, which contained 10 All-Star players.
1968 – Wes Unseld Jr. was selected by the Baltimore Bullets as the No. 2 selection, joining Elvin Hayes and Bob Kauffman as top-3 picks who went on to make at least one All-Star game.
- Unseld would win the league’s MVP as a rookie and eventually become arguably the best player in franchise history on his way to making the Hall of Fame.
- Only five players from this class made it to the 10-year mark in the league and while that figure is low even for the era, the preceding draft class (1967, which had four All-Stars) only had four NBA players making it to the 10-year threshold.
1957 – In a league with eight teams, Hot Rod Hundley (No. 1 pick), Sam Jones (No. 8 pick), and Woody Sauldsberry (No. 60 pick) were the only players from this draft class to make an All-Star team.
- Jones compiled 92.3 career win shares, five all-star appearances, and 10 NBA titles during his 12-year NBA career.
- Among the 85 players selected in the 1957 draft, the former Celtic great was the only one to play more than seven years.
Wizards Takeaway: History shows us that even in the most underwhelming NBA draft classes, star-level talent exists. While it would be much easier to hit on that level of prospect in a more talented class, it at least gives some hope for the Wizards this coming June even if the probabilities would suggest otherwise.
Read More on the Wizards on FortyEightMinutes
The Defenders Are Back In D.C.
Anyone who knows me personally knows that while I am a sports professional who has primarily worked around the NBA, football is among my biggest passions. I rarely miss an NFL Sunday and when the season is over, I turn to offseason news and other opportunities to fill the void.
In 2020, I had a chance to cover the XFL, something that unveiled a truly unique sports experience: D.C. Defenders home games at Audi Field.
The Defenders, now part of the UFL, return to Audi Field on Sunday for their 2024 home opener against the Houston Roughnecks where the atmosphere will no doubt be electric once again—especially with the franchise’s Beer Snake tradition set to continue.
- What to Watch For: QB Jordan Ta’amu should have more time in the pocket this week after the Defenders made an in-week offensive tackle roster change, replacing Jean Delance, who allowed two sacks and had two crucial penalties last week before being ejected from the UFL week 1 contests.
- Trend to Note: Since 2020, the Defenders have never lost a home game.
Commanders’ 7-Round Mock Draft
There are strong signals that the Commanders will stay at No. 2 and select a quarterback (I expect Jayden Daniels to be the selection).
Yet, if Washington opts to bypass the projected top tier at the position and focus its attention on other QB options (such as Michael Penix Jr., whom the team has a scheduled visit with), trading down could be a beneficial strategy.
Minnesota has become the golden child for mock draft trade-downs after they acquired the No. 23 pick in their recent trade with the Texans. Let’s perform a 7-round mock draft (via PFF’s Mock Draft Simulator) where the Vikings trade up to No. 2 with the Commanders.
No. 11 – Olumuyiwa Fashanu – OT – Penn State
- Fashanu has been mocked to the Jets at No. 10 but in this simulation, New York took Amarius Mims out of Georgia. While Brock Bowers was a consideration for the Commanders here as well, yet landing a franchise left tackle was too much value to pass up on. Washington’s greatest teams have thrived when its offensive line was dominant and adding Fashanu is a step toward that.
No. 23 – Kool-Aid McKinstry – CB – Alabama
- Adding McKinstry will further unlock what Dan Quinn can do with the Commanders’ defense. Penn State’s Chip Robinson was the non-secondary consideration here but the Alabama CB has the chance to develop into Washington’s best CB since Champ Bailey.
[Trade] No. 28 – Micheal Penix – QB – Washington
- The Commanders move from No. 36 to No. 28 in a trade with the Bills, surrendering the No. 108 pick (acquired from Minnesota in the trade down from No. 2). Many draft experts point to Penix’s injury history as the reason why he won’t be a top pick but there is no doubting the QB’s talent. I see him Penix as the second-best QB in the draft behind Caleb Williams and the Commanders get a steal here.
No. 40 – Chris Braswell – Edge – Alabama
- Braswell, who is from Baltimore, should develop into an every-down edge rusher who is also capable of being an impact run defender.
No. 67 – Kamren Kinchens – S – Miami
- There were times a year ago when Kinchens was projected to be a first-round prospect. If he falls to the third round, the Commanders shouldn’t hesitate to add him to what could become their version of the Legion of Boom.
No. 78 – Michael Hall Jr. – DI – Ohio State
- This pick is from the Sam Howell trade and in this simulation, another prospect who could go much higher falls to Washington. Hall is a pass-rushing defensive tackle who’ll add uniqueness to the defensive line rotation.
No. 100 – Ben Sinnott – TE – Kansas State
- Sinnott is a Swiss army knife tight end, who can line up at receiver and also help in the run game. He and Zach Ertz (with whatever the 32-year-old has left in the tank) create some intrigue in the positional group.
- Foster can become a solid starter in the NFL. 31-year old Cornelius Lucas, who re-signed on a one-year deal, may get the start at right tackle in 2024, though Foster could capture that role within a year of development.
No. 152 – Dwight McGlothern – CB – Arkansas
- At 6’2″ with solid athleticism, McGlothern provides more depth for Washington’s new-look defense.
- More depth for the defensive line.
