Expected draft pick number under the old system and the proposed new 3-2-1 system. Relegated teams (bottom 3) are guaranteed no worse than pick #12, with a progressive floor applied in worst-to-best record order — giving each relegated team a different EV. All other tiers shift slightly worse due to displacement into picks 13–16.
Analysis via Chris W. Crouse · FortyEightMinutesNBA@gmail.com
| Team / Tier | New 3-2-1 EV | #1 pick % | Old system EV | #1 pick % | Δ EV |
|---|
How to read: EV = expected draft pick number (lower = better). Old system: 14 teams, top 4 picks by lottery, rest slotted by record. New 3-2-1: 16 teams, all 16 picks drawn by lottery, relegated teams guaranteed no worse than pick #12. The three relegated teams have different EVs (7.9, 8.1, 8.3) because the progressive floor gives the worst-record team priority at pick 10. Teams 15–16 are new to the lottery.