Analysis via Chris W. Crouse · FortyEightMinutesNBA@gmail.com
Expected draft pick number under the old system, the proposed 3-2-1 system, and a Jazz/Grizzlies restrictions scenario where any team would be prohibited from landing picks 1–5 and instead awarded pick 6.
Relegated teams (bottom 3) are guaranteed no worse than pick #12, which gives each relegated team a different EV based on record: worst record (7.92) → best floor (pick 10 priority), mid (8.10), best relegated (8.27) → pick 12 floor. All other tiers shift slightly worse due to their ability to earn picks 13–16.
| Team / Tier | Old EV | 3-2-1 EV | Δ vs Old | Jazz/Grizzlies EV | Δ vs Old | Δ vs 3-2-1 | Pick 6 prob |
|---|
Jazz/Grizzlies Restrictions: Any lottery outcome placing a team at picks 1–5 is voided and that team receives pick 6 instead. Probability mass from picks 1–5 is therefore added to pick 6. Picks 7–16 are unchanged. Floor protection note: Relegated teams (bottom 3) are guaranteed no worse than pick #12, which collapses their picks 13–16 probability (27.4%) into pick #12, improving their 3-2-1 EV from 8.87 to 8.09 — but bumping non-playoff (+0.16), 9/10 seeds (+0.20), and 7v8 losers (+0.19) slightly worse as they get displaced into picks 13–16. The non-playoff tier (4th–10th worst) is hit hardest by the Jazz/Grizzlies restriction because they had the most probability in picks 1–5 to begin with (≈39% top-5 odds in 3-2-1).