All post-draft grade pieces are problematic in terms of how little they matter, though the winners and losers gag is a tradition in American sports coverage and who are we to stop the tradition?
We can attempt to be more accurate about it, at least in the distribution of our grading. As longtime NBA analyst Henry Abbott notes, draft picks have a 94 percent failure rate in the NBA in terms of accounting for how they contribute to winning on the team that drafts them.
You might be surprised to understand that not every team in the NBA has winning as a top objective (many have marketing and ROI objectives that can influence basketball production decisions). Yet, whether you believe the calculus behind that 94 percent “rate of failure” or not, it’s hard to ignore the additional data from Henry’s piece (data from 2003-2019).
- Only 62% of draft picks from pick 15-30 last five years in the NBA. That number drops to 38% from 31-45 and 16% from picks 46-60.
- It is much better for top 10 picks, with 84% of Top 5 picks remaining in the NBA within 5 years and 78% for prospects drafted 6-10.
Front offices know these probabilities; most have integrated analytics departments. As for the media covering the league? Most have different skillsets and even the ones who understand probabilities, it’s clear to see that many are on the opposite end of that spectrum in terms of optimism for whatever reasons:
- Yahoo’s Kevin O’Connor gave out 24 “A” grades among the 30 NBA First round picks this year, including every single one in the first 19 picks . His lowest grades were in the “C” range with only the Hawks and Nets getting one.
- The Athletic’s John Hollinger (while a highly respected mind in basketball and former front office member) scaled his grades distribution only slightly better, giving “A” and “B” grades to 24 of the 30 NBA teams, though every team passed with no “D” or “F” grades given out.
- ESPN opted not to label any team a loser in their 2026 NBA Draft first round piece,” instead titling their piece: “Round 1 Winners, surprise picks, questions.”
It’s also noteworthy that ESPN’s NBA coverage differs from it’s NFL Draft coverage, where they have no issues calling teams losers.
Part of what makes the NFL the more dominate sport is that there is much less sugar coating in analysis and coverage. You (mostly) play to win the game and that comes with some losers. The NBA (and ESPN) are surely looking to convert some of the NFL audience to the hardwood, so with that should come with some adjustments in framing in its coverage.
We’re here to help! Add us to the list of publications that aren’t afraid to call out losers post-draft and attempt to be more accurate in the distribution of grades.
Below are our draft grades in a hybrid way: awarding a gold medal, silver medal, and bronze medal winners in addition to some awards for being the biggest losers as well as a few participation trophies.
Participation Trophy No. 1: Washington Wizards
- Doesn’t it feel good to try? The Wizards get a participation trophy for participating again. Washington is on the path to try winning again and they are unlikely to be embarrassed and have a player score 83 points on low-cost below replacement-level players with the No. 1 pick in town and Trae Young under contract.
- While Washington is unlikely to make much noise in terms of champions over the next decade, they could build a team that wins one or even two playoff series in a row at some point during AJ Dybantsa‘s career.
Participation Trophy No. 2: Brooklyn Nets
- While the Nets didn’t win the lottery, they are also on the path to attempt to win again after their draft and moves ahead of it. The trade for Julius Randle is a floor raiser and the selection of Mikal Brown Jr. brings a chance at a Bradley Beal-level sidekick.
- Joshua Jefferson at the end of the first round was great value. We have him No. 20 on our Top 60 as someone who impacts winning (we see him as a 35% chance to have a Trevor Ariza-type career).
Participation Trophy No. 3: Milwaukee Bucks
- Moving on from an MVP-caliber player in Giannis Antetokounmpo might be as hard as moving away from Miami to play in Milwaukee. While the Heat’s collection of role players heading north are unlikely to bring the Bucks any sort of long-term contention, the two first round draft picks bring hope.
- Brayden Burries is a fundamentally sound shooting guard who should mesh with any future stars and Nate Ament is a former top-5 high school recruit who could become that star down the line. While Ament should have opportunity to grow and prove that his lone season in Tennessee was an environment problem, it’ll likely be a few years before we see any real impact on winning from him. That means the Bucks are simply participating unless they make major additional moves.
– Biggest Loser Awards –
Pyrate (Fool’s Gold): Chicago Bulls
- The Bulls landed a top 4 pick in the lottery and selected Caleb Wilson, who many consider a future star.
- While we see him having the potential to be a Blake Griffin-esque star, that is the high end of the projection. There are a number of possible scenarios where Wilson ends up underperforming those projections, including him turning out to be just a taller Tyrus Thomas with better PR.
- There were rumors that the Bulls could have received a “franchise-changing” haul for the No. 4 pick and the Nets were among the teams that checked in. If those rumors were true, it might have been prudent for the team to take a deal that set them up for the future with less risk than relying on a 19 year old who couldn’t finish a college season.
Pyrate (Fool’s Gold) Again: Sacramento Kings
- Sacramento gets a marketable star in Darius Acuff (that’s a win) but in terms of winning, his style of player had us ranking him lower than consensus (10th overall). Acuff will give the franchise hope and he might even make an All-Star team or two. But it’s unlikely he’s the type of player to lead the team to a championship.
Wooden Spoon: Sixers Fans
- It’s not that Labaron Philon is a bad player. He was No. 15 on our Top 60. The raw college stats are a little misleading because Alabama plays at a Suns seven-seconds-or-less pace but Philon has a reputation as a hard worker and we noted in our rankings that he could improve significantly in the right organization.
- Taking a point guard after trading away Jared McCain for financial reasons after former MVP and franchise player Joel Embiid begged the front office not to duck the tax is hilarious.
- McCain could have no doubt helped and played a role for the Sixers in the playoffs last year, just like he did in OKC. Not all Sixers fans accepted the narrative that “well, Philly couldn’t play three point guards anyway or “McCain wasn’t a needle mover anyway and we’ll use that pick to get frontcourt and/or wing help.” To the ones that did, should attempt to notice the egg on the face.
- It’s easier to fool someone that to convince them they are fooled is a Mark Twain quote I think of often.
- The organization in Philadelphia is doing just fine but add in the fact that the Sixers did not own a second round pick and opted not to simply just buy one in this draft (which is full of elder prospects who project to be nice role players immediately) and it’s more apparent that it’s the fans/customers that continue to support the team are the actual losers.
– Real Winners –
Gold Medal Winner: Memphis Grizzlies
- Getting our No. 1 overall prospect in Cameron Boozer and following that up by trading down twice, collecting five seconds in the process while picking up Karim Lopez (who was our No. 13 prospect) at No. 21 is a series of wins.
- Boozer is seen as a future star with a high floor and he’s the type of player that can elevate the team enough to keep them favorable enough in the Memphis market and fend off some of the relocation risk (though it’s very possible the team ends up playing some games in Nashville over the next few years ala the Spurs with Austin, Texas).
- The Grizzlies could have stayed at No. 16 and selected Lopez and they would have received a high grade. They traded down twice and acquired five second rounds, flipping three of them for Isaiah Steward. It was fantastic to watch the excellent asset management.
Silver Medal Winner: Miami Heat
- If you feel like it’s cheating to put them in here, that’s fair but the value they got for their No. 13 pick in getting Giannis back that will by far likely outweigh any returns the selection brings back. The No. 13 pick in this year’s draft is nearly 20 percent of the value that Milwaukee received in the Giannis trade, per our site’s model.
- If Giannis helps bring a title to Miami (and the financial and residuals that a title brings to a market and team), then the Heat will be also be a winner in the 2031 and 2033 drafts as well, regardless of where those picks land.
- Getting Ryan Conwell in round two, paying cash to move up a few spots, was a nice move by the team. Draft picks in this range have horrible hit rates, though the Heat are among the league leaders in getting production out of the second round with a linage includes Josh Richardson, Mario Chalmers, Bimbo Coles, Matt Geiger, Pelle Larsson and Rasual Butler.
- It’s worth noting that many of their former blockbuster trades have included these types of players with Geiger being part of the Alonzo Mourning deal and Richardson being sent to Philly in the Jimmy Butler sign-and-trade. It’s easy to see Conwell being good enough for the Heat as a rookie and then being part of a deal to bring in more veteran help either at the trade deadline or next summer.
The No. 13 pick was the most valuable asset heading to the Bucks in the Giannis trade, per our model.
That doesn’t necessarily mean Nate Ament is going to transcend but there’s a lot riding on him.
I still see the Bucks making additional moves with the assets they’ve received… pic.twitter.com/xHEHn4naiX
— CC (@ChrisCSports) June 25, 2026
Bronze Medal Winner: Utah Jazz
- We’d bet on Darryn Peterson in that infrastructure in Utah to easily be their best player in five years. Had Utah selected Boozer, we’d have them higher on this list (being that we are lower on some of their frontcourt pillars (such as Jaren Jackson Jr.).
— Utah Jazz (@utahjazz) June 24, 2026
Honorable Mentions
- Golden State Warriors: Yaxel Lendeborg is a player who can contribute now but also someone who is could eventually be a pillar that the fans in Northern California can get behind as Draymond Green is transitioned out of town over the next few years (and Yaxel can be as loud as Draymond about it should it become a nasty media battle).
- San Antonio Spurs: Yes, the team made the Finals but their rotation was 1-2 players away, including having a clear need for another big in the post. Passing up on Karim Lopez at No. 20 was my only qualm but taking a calculated risk on Jayden Quaintance before taking advantage of the Nuggets wanting to save money and acquiring No. 26/ Tarris Reed were smart, low risk moves.
- Atlanta Hawks: Not necessarily a take you might have seen elsewhere.
- If I were a GM parsing through the top point guard options in this draft, Flemings would have been my pick. He was our No. 5 overall prospect and someone who we determined could rise to be the second best player on a true contending team (as long as the No. 1 was elite).
- Another guard from the lottery could end up being better than him but which one? Flemings is the safest value among them with a high ceiling (albeit non-superstar) and a high floor. As the selection at No. 8, he brings value to Atlanta.
- Henri Veesaar at No. 52 is a value but we acknowledge that when prospects fall like that, there is usually an underlying reason (there are rumors he was adament that he wouldn’t sign a two-way contract and that was a reason).
- Zuby Ejiofor is a glue guy who should be in a playoff rotiation sooner than later. No issue with taking that at No. 23.
First look at the rookies in their new threads ? pic.twitter.com/623lFVMzq8
— Atlanta Hawks (@ATLHawks) June 25, 2026
