Our rankings are determined by how great a prospect is but also how they project to contribute toward winning.
We don’t get everything right but we attempt to look at things differently than the majority given our intel from scouts and evaluators around the league as well as our insights on winning and losing teams.
- In the past, we’ve been different from consensus, producing some nice results. Some of our successes against consensus, including Stephon Castle ranked in the top 4 in 2024 where he ultimately went to the Spurs (compared to consensus having him in the lower end of the top 10).
- In 2025, we successfully identified several players with regard to role. We had Ace Bailey way below consensus for example due to his lack of ability (to date) to play different roles on the team. He could shift his game now with the Jazz likely to be better. The risk of him not progressing enough to warrant as many scoring opportunities as to the style he’s played remains.
- Last year, we also had Kon Knueppel as a potential win share leader and he ended up leading the 2025 class. We were high on Carter Bryant and Joan Beringer as guys who could play a definite role on a true contending team. Bryant is currently in the NBA Finals contributing to the Spurs run, while Beringer didn’t play that much this season, though there are reports that Minnesota is prioritizing him as part of their future amid an offseason that’s likely to see roster overhaul.
Some of where we differ from consensus this year:
- Cameron Boozer is our clear No. 1 (in a tier by himself). Darryn Peterson and AJ Dybantsa follow in a tier slightly below him. ESPN has Boozer at No. 3 and AJ at No. 1.
- Kingston Flemings is our No. 5; one of the guards in the lottery cluster could (and probably will) ultimately be better than him but which one? Kingston is our most confident bet to be contribute to a winning over the course of his career and be in the All-Star conversation. We’re high on Keaton Wagler as well, though most Big Boards are too.
- Darius Acuff is at No. 10 and Mikel Brown is at No. 8, both lower than consensus of 5-7 range. Both carry different risks that we’d rather pass up on for other prospects. Acuff might become an All-Star; we see him as unlikely to ever be a core member of a championship team at his style of play.
- We see Hannes Steinbach and Karim Lopez as clear lottery picks who will be good starters and safe bets. Both could be top 5 players on championship teams at some point in their careers.
- Joshua Jefferson at No. 20 is all about his ability to play a valuable role. When most talk about ceiling, they do not factor the probability that a prospect reaches it. Jefferson has a Trevor Ariza-type ceiling in his game that easily reachable (35.3% chance per our analytics). He’s No. 31 on ESPN.
- Tarris Reed is our No. 28 prospect; he’s No. 36 on ESPN. We see Reed having starter potential and the risk on him not being able to develop into at least a role player as relatively low.
- Jack Kayil is in our top 30. He’s climbed up on ESPN to be No. 36 for them.
- Oscar Cluff is No. 40 for us as a player who can carve out an immediate role in the paint. He’s no. 61 on ESPN. The second round has so many elder prospects that teams can plug in as role players, assuming they are not shooting for the stars. Duke’s Maliq Brown is another player we’re higher on than consensus for his ability to play a role at the next level.
